Rivian (RIVN) reaffirms 57K production guidance, gross profit in Q4 2024

EV maker Rivian (RIVN) reaffirmed its plans to build 57,000 vehicles this year during its 2024 Investor Day. More importantly, Rivian still expects to achieve a positive gross profit by the end of the year.

Rivian still on track for positive gross profit in Q4 2024

Rivian gave us a sneak peek into what we can expect as the EV maker transitions to its next growth stage during its first Investor Day on Thursday.

After launching not one but three products (R1T, R1S, and Commercial Van), Rivian lost over $139,000 on every vehicle built in the third quarter of 2022.

Since then, Rivian has made drastic progress in cutting costs. In the first three months of the year, Rivian lost $38,784 per EV built, an improvement of over $100,000. However, that number is still up from the $32.5K and $30.5K losses in Q2 and Q3, 2023.

Q3 ’22 Q4 ’22 Q1 ’23 Q2 ’23 Q3 ’23 Q4 ’23 Q1 ’24
Rivian loss per vehicle $139,277 $124,162 $67,329 $32,594 $30,500 $43,372 $38,784
Rivian loss per vehicle by quarter

Rivian shut down its Normal, IL, manufacturing plant in April for a host of upgrades. According to CEO RJ Scaringe, the changes have resulted in “significant” cost reductions.

As a result, Rivian expects to achieve its first positive gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2024. On Thursday, Rivian reaffirmed that it’s on track to hit the milestone by the end of the year.

(Source: Rivian)

Rivian believes that, between significant material and labor cost reductions, it will be enough as it strives to earn a profit.

2024 production goal in sight

Rivian also confirmed it’s on track to build 57,000 vehicles this year. Despite production slipping in Q1 (13,980 vs 17,541 in Q4 2023), Rivian expected a slowdown with the planned plant shutdown.

(Source: Rivian)

The EV maker expects lower production in Q2 between 9,100 and 9,300 units. Second-quarter deliveries are forecasted to be between 13,000 and 13,300, slightly lower than the 13,588 handed over in Q1.

Rivian expects to ramp production in the second half of the year. Following the R2 launch in early 2026, it expects production capacity to reach 215,000 units.

(Source: Rivian)

The smaller, more affordable R2 is expected to represent 155,000 of the total 215,000 production capacity.

Once Rivian’s Georgia plant opens, output is expected to surge with 200,000 production capacity on line 1 and another 200,000 on line 2.

Rivian’s new partnership with Volkswagen earned it new confidence as its stock surged over 20%. Several analysts praised the move, including Dan Ives from Wedbush. Ives said the deal can “change the game for Rivian” on its path to profitability.

Oh, and it looks like there might be a few more Rivians in the pipeline. In a very Tesla slide, Rivian has a few new models waiting in the wings.

Source: Rivian

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