The NHS must treat at least 10 per cent more non-emergency hospital cases a month if it is to successfully start reducing the hefty backlog caused by the pandemic, a new analysis has found
From February 2020 to October 2022, the
The steady rise suggests the service was already gradually declining before the pandemic.
Covid-19 then intensified the decline, researchers said, and by October 2022, there were more than 7.2 million referrals waiting to receive non-urgent treatment.
Experts have warned that this is likely to be a substantial under-estimate of the backlog because of the anticipated large numbers of people yet to come forward for care following the pandemic.
An estimated 10.2 million fewer referrals were made to elective care from the beginning of the pandemic to 31 October 2022, the study found.
How many of these missing patients return for care is one of the biggest unknowns when predicting future waiting list numbers.
The researchers simulated a range of scenarios based on between 25 per cent and 75 per cent of missing patients seeking health care. This allowed scientists to model the outcome of several increases in capacity on waiting list numbers.
The findings illustrate the importance of resilience within the NHS to minimise the impact of any future emergencies on the provision of routine care, researchers said.
Dr Shah said: “Moving ahead, it is evident that we cannot afford to leave our healthcare systems strained; instead, we must enhance their resilience to ensure better preparedness for any future emergencies.”
